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Best NBA Player Props Today: Picks for Jalen Brunson & More
Grayson Allen Player Prop
When the Phoenix Suns added Grayson Allen in the Deandre Ayton trade, I doubt they planned on him starting so often early in the year. But with both Bradley Beal and Devin Booker shelved, Allen has had to start alongside Josh Okogie and Eric Gordon. While Kevin Durant provides plenty of offensive firepower, he can’t carry the whole offense, even against a fun-but-bad San Antonio Spurs team.
The Spurs have struggled to stop opposing wings, especially from beyond the arc and the corner. That helps Allen more than any other player on Phoenix’s roster. Although he is off to a shaky start shooting — he has gone just 5-for-16 (31.3%) from deep in Phoenix — he is a career 39.4% shooter, and the volume is still there. The Spurs defense, which is allowing opponents to go 4.4-for-9 (48.9%) from the corner, presents a great get-right spot for Allen. Even though the Spurs have fared well from the top of the key, I trust Allen to get things rolling here.
The total for Allen’s 3-pointers sits at 2.5 with the under in the plus money. That’s probably fair — we haven’t seen much of the new-look Suns, and Allen is averaging 2.5 3-pointers per game without Booker and Beal, but I would have this one priced closer to a tossup. Phoenix had to play its first two games on the road, but the return to the Footprint Center saw Allen go 3-for-7 (42.9%) from three, and Allen is generally a better perimeter shooter at home (40.2%) than on the road (38.5%) since entering the NBA. Back him to cash this prop in the plus money.
NBA Player Prop Pick: Grayson Allen Over 2.5 3-Pointers +105 at DraftKings
Devin Vassell Player Prop
You probably aren’t that excited about betting on Devin Vassell, but he is a big part of the rebuilding San Antonio Spurs. He is off to a fiery start this season and is averaging 20.7 points, three rebounds and 1.7 assists per game. He averaged 11.4 points, 3.7 rebounds and 1.9 assists last year. He is also averaging just five potential assists per game this year.
Our NBA betting tools love this Devin Vassell under today. You’ll find his assist total set to 3.5 — way less than what he has averaged both this season and last season — with the under priced at -130 (56.5%) on DraftKings, which is worse than the true odds of -136 (57.6%). OddsShopper calculates true odds by indexing odds available at all books and adjusting for book sharpness and hold.
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NBA Player Prop Pick: Devin Vassell Under 3.5 Assists -130 at DraftKings
Jalen Brunson Player Prop
I’m burying the lede a bit here by taking about Jalen Brunson last. The star point guard has absolutely owned the Cleveland Cavaliers since arriving in New York. He averaged 25.3 points, six assists and three rebounds against the Cavs in the regular season before averaging 24 points, 4.8 assists and 4.2 rebounds in the playoffs. Some books are taking action on his points, rebounds and assists (PRA) prop at 30.5, which, if you do some quick math, is worse than both his regular season (34.3) and postseason (33) split.
The Cavs that Brunson will play tonight won’t resemble the teams he feasted against last year. Center Jarrett Allen and point guard Darius Garland are both out, and shooting guard Donovan Mitchell is up in the air. That leaves Cleveland with a heavily condensed rotation, which hasn’t gone well for them. The Cavs struggled against point guards in their two games without Allen and Garland: Tyrese Haliburton went off for 42 PRA on Friday and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander recorded 49 PRA on Saturday.
There are some complications: Brunson is off to a cool start, the Cavs are down several weapons and both of these teams are on the first leg of a back-to-back set. However, we know head coach Tom Thibodeau loves to ride his starters hard, but Brunson’s minutes are at only 32 per game, which is down from last year (35) and less than both what Julius Randle (34) and RJ Barrett (33.3) have averaged this year. Look for Brunson’s workload to tick up as he regresses toward his career averages. Although Brunson has gone over this number just once this year, this is a good spot for him to do so again.
NBA Player Prop Pick: Jalen Brunson Over 30.5 PRA -110 at BetMGM
