The last time I wrote this column, we followed a strong 3-0 performance up with a not-so-solid 1-2 showing — although late-breaking injury news cooked our under for C.J. McCollum. Oh well. So what are today’s best NBA player prop picks? Let’s dive right in. If you’re hungry for more action, check out our guide to NBA player prop betting as well.
Best NBA Player Props Today: Picks for Jrue Holiday & More
John Collins Player Prop
Is John Collins good? After getting shipped off from the Atlanta Hawks for Rudy Gay (who is no longer on the team) and a second-round pick, the veteran forward has started his career in Utah off by averaging 15 points per game on 49.3% from the floor. While that puts him on pace for more points per game than he recorded last year (13.1), he is also on pace for the worst conversion rate of his career. He may have a higher-volume role in Utah, but that won’t always yield plenty of points.
Collins will take on the Minnesota Timberwolves tonight, and while I don’t think their combination of Karl-Anthony Towns and Rudy Gobert is that effective, it has made life hell for big wings like Collins. The Wolves have allowed the fewest points per game to power forwards (14.7) and the fifth-fewest to small forwards (19.3). Having solid wing defenders like Jaden McDaniels and Kyle Anderson has likely helped.
You’ll find Collins’ points prop set to 14.5 with the under priced at -130 on BetMGM. Although Collins is averaging 15 points per game this year, he struggled against this Timberwolves lineup last season. In his lone start against the Wolves’ current starting five, Collins scored a pathetic six points on 2-for-6 from the floor and 0-for-2 from beyond the arc, good for a box plus-minus of -21. Collins has lined up against Gobert nine times in his career and is averaging 12 points per game, going over the 14.5 just three times. If you’re new to BetMGM, check out our OddsShopper and your first bet paid back as a bonus bet up to $1,500.
NBA Player Prop Pick: John Collins Under 14.5 Points -130 at BetMGM
Jrue Holiday Player Prop
The books never learn, do they? We have been fading Jrue Holiday on the assist market almost all season, and it’s been quite lucrative. The point guard just doesn’t have to set up his teammates in Boston because they’re capable of creating their own shots. He is averaging just four assists and six potential assists per game, beating this number just once.
Our NBA betting tools want action on this Jrue Holiday under today. You’ll find his assist total set to 6.5 — far more than his season average. I recommended this play via OddsShopper Insider Access when it was trading at -105, and in a matter of minutes, it had plummeted to -120. Still, with Pinnacle taking action at -167, there is still value to exploit.
The -120 (54.5%) on BetMGM is worse than the true odds of -140 (58.3%). OddsShopper calculates true odds by indexing odds available at all books and adjusting for book sharpness and hold. If you haven’t signed up for OddsShopper , you can get access to all of our NBA betting tools for $99.95 per month. Make sure to use promo code “ISIROIS” at checkout for 20% off!
NBA Player Prop Pick: Jrue Holiday Under 6.5 Assists -120 at BetMGM
Jaden McDaniels Player Prop
Don’t worry — we aren’t going to bet on three unders today. We’re going to play one over, and it comes in the Jazz-Timberwolves game we already discussed briefly. While the Timberwolves have been cooking their opponents’ big wings, the Jazz have been getting cooked by their opponents’ big wings. Franz Wagner erupted for 21 points on Thursday. Aaron Gordon scored 21 on Monday, too.
While Jaden McDaniels is a lower-usage member of Minnesota’s rotation than Gordon is for the Nuggets or Wagner is for the Magic, his points prop reflects that reality. It sits at only 9.5, which is slightly more than what he has averaged this season (9) but less than what he averaged last year (12.1). Although McDaniels’ volume decreases when Gobert and Towns are active, he still averaged 12.1 with Gobert and 11.3 with Towns last year.
McDaniels has been dealing with an injury to start the season, but he is still getting enough minutes to cash this over. He tallied 24 in a double-digit loss in Atlanta before getting 21 in a double-digit win at home over Denver. His minutes should normalize closer to the 25-to-30 range in what should be a close game, and that should lead to an uptick in his scoring.
McDaniels was effective against the Jazz last year. He averaged 10 points per game with a median performance of 10.5, beating the over three times with shooting splits of 55.2/36.4/100. With the over trading at +102 at FanDuel, lock this one in before sharp action evens out the market there.
NBA Player Prop Pick: Jaden McDaniels Over 9.5 Points +102 at FanDuel
