We wrapped up last week with a solid 2-1 showing for our article plays. We cashed an Alperen Sengün under and a Giannis Antetokounmpo under by the hook, but we lost a Kyrie Irving under by the hook, too. My full NBA cards are now sitting at 216-200-11 (+27u) on the season. As always, if you want access to my full cards in real-time to ensure you get the best odds, make sure to subscribe to guide to NBA player prop betting as well.
NBA Player Props Today: Picks for Donovan Mitchell & More
Donovan Mitchell Player Prop
Donovan Mitchell has owned the Chicago Bulls since he ed the Cleveland Cavaliers. Across four meetings, Mitchell is averaging 36.8 points, 7.8 assists and 7.5 rebounds per game against them. However, Mitchell’s scoring average is inflated by a massive 71-point, 50-minute night. His points median versus Chicago is a less impressive 30.5 — which is exactly where his points prop is trading today.
I’m getting action on Mitchell’s points under in this spot. The Chicago Bulls aren’t a great team, but they’ve limited opposing point guards effectively. The Bulls lead the NBA in points allowed to point guards this year (21.6). They rank fifth over the last 15 games (23.2) as well. Chicago’s NBA-slowest pace deserves the bulk of the credit — fewer scoring opportunities means fewer points allowed.
Chicago’s defense has been most vulnerable in the corner and least vulnerable in the paint. The Bulls allow the fewest points in the paint per game (44), a zone wherein Mitchell takes 41% of his shots. While they also allow the most corner 3-pointers per game, Mitchell takes just 0.4 of those looks per game and rarely converts — just look at his shot chart.
Mitchell should defer to open teammates in the corner enough to keep him under the 30.5, especially if Chicago can continue to defend the paint well. I’m concerned about Chicago’s above-the-break defense, which ranks just 20th and allows 9.5 made shots per game, but I’m optimistic that the Bulls’ slow pace will limit the number of good looks Mitchell will get.
NBA Player Prop Pick: Donovan Mitchell Under 30.5 Points -105 at ESPNBet
Nicolas Claxton Player Prop
The Brooklyn Nets will face the Miami Heat at the Barclay’s Center this afternoon. The Nets have ruled out blackout center Day’Ron Sharpe, which should keep Claxton on the floor for plenty of time. Still, Claxton recorded only 11 rebounds over 33 minutes in his lone game without Sharpe this season. The Heat are on the wrong end of a back-to-back and are yet to share an injury report. I’m fading Claxton tonight, and OddsShopper recommends doing the same.
The Heat aren’t a great rebounding team — Miami ranks just 20th in team rebound rate this year (49.7%) — but they are a slow team. Miami ranks 29th in pace on the year (98) and 26th over their last seven games (96.3), all of which they played without Jimmy Butler.
Stats aside, our OddsShopper calculates true odds by indexing odds available at all books and adjusting for book sharpness and hold.
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NBA Player Prop Pick: Nicolas Claxton Under 11.5 Rebounds -120 at ESPNBet
Stephen Curry Player Prop
Draymond Green will make his return to the court tonight, and that means it’s time to fade Stephen Curry in the assists column. Curry is averaging 4.8 assists per game this year. That number still sits at exactly 4.8 in games that Green plays, but Curry’s median drops to four in those contests, while his median with Green is six.
In 14 games with Green this year, Curry has dished out six or more assists just five times, giving the under 5.5 a raw win rate of 62.4%. The recent injury to Chris Paul had increased Curry’s ing volume — Curry is averaging 7.2 assists per game without Paul this year, tallying six or more in all but one of six games — but Green’s return should drop it back to normal.
It also helps that the Grizzlies are in a really bad place. Desmond Bane is out, Jaren Jackson Jr. is questionable and both Marcus Smart and Ja Morant are on the shelf for a while. Golden State is trading as an 8-point road favorite, so we could be in for a blowout. Curry is averaging 5.3 assists per game in double-digit wins, staying under the 5.5 in four of seven.
NBA Player Prop Pick:
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