The NBA has an exciting slate of games on tap this evening, including an important meeting between the Atlanta Hawks and Miami Heat that may help determine playoff positioning. With plenty of basketball to watch and betting markets to track, it can be easy to miss out on some of the best plays. Tonight’s Raptors-Nuggets game has an especially attractive NBA player prop bet on the board involving center Nikola Jokic.
Best NBA Bets, Expert Picks & Predictions | March 6
Nikola Jokic to Triple-Double
The ride continues for Jokic triple-double backers — he has now accomplished the feat in three straight outings and 16 of his past 21 games. It is hard to find anything on the market that hits at a near 75% clip, but this prop has done just that since the calendar flipped over.
A big reason for the increase in Jokic’s assists is incredibly efficient shooting. Assists are a lot easier to come by when Denver’s entire starting five has a true shooting percentage of 60% or higher, which is exactly what has happened since Jan. 1.
Jamal Murray, Jokic’s No. 2, is pushing the upper 30s in minutes per game for the first time in years, giving him a go-to perimeter option for extra assist chances.
Jokic’s points are a given. His total rebound rate has also ballooned to 23.2% in 2023. It may sound absurd to say that Jokic is likelier to triple-double than not, but it is accurate. This prop continues to be my favorite option on the board whenever the Nuggets are in action, even at standard odds of -110.
Best NBA Bet: Nikola Jokic Triple Double (-110) at FanDuel
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New Orleans Pelicans Moneyline
The New Orleans Pelicans opened at +200 on the moneyline last night at DraftKings. While that number is long gone, some value remains on the current number.
For starters, the status of Sacramento’s star point guard, De’Aaron Fox, is up in the air, although it’s worth noting that he did participate in this morning’s shootaround. His continued absence would boost the value of this play.
Despite the near season-long absence of Zion Williamson, the Pelicans are 11th in adjusted net rating, per DunksAndThrees, with the 11th most difficult strength of schedule. The Kings? Dead last in adjusted strength of schedule, a massive discrepancy that explains why these two teams of near-equal strength have drastically different records.
While New Orleans certainly doesn’t project to win this game even half the time, they don’t have to in order for their nearly 2-1 odds to work in your favor. Trust the process and bet the sizable dog here — this is my favorite outright bet left on the market for Monday’s NBA games. Readers who are yet to sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook can score a no-sweat first bet worth up to $1,000!
Best NBA Bet: New Orleans Pelicans Moneyline (+190) at FanDuel
