The NASCAR Cup Series has put together a strong start to the season. We’ve had three close finishes to start the season, including a photo finish in Atlanta and a nailbiter for Kyle Larson in Las Vegas. This Sunday’s race should provide yet another entertaining show, so let’s dive into the NASCAR Cup Series betting odds for Phoenix as we make our picks and predictions for the 2024 Shriners Children’s 500.
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NASCAR Cup Series Bets: Shriners Children’s 500 Odds, Picks & Predictions for Phoenix (2024)
NASCAR Phoenix Odds & Predictions
| Driver | Outright Odds |
|---|---|
| Kyle Larson | +600 |
| Ryan Blaney | +700 |
| William Byron | +750 |
| Ross Chastain | +850 |
| Denny Hamlin | +900 |
| Christopher Bell | +1000 |
| Martin Truex Jr. | +1000 |
| Kyle Busch | +1200 |
| Joey Logano | +1400 |
| Tyler Reddick | +1600 |
| Ty Gibbs | +1600 |
| Chase Elliott | +1800 |
Favorites | Shriners Children’s 500 Odds
Fresh off a win in Las Vegas, Kyle Larson (+600) remains the favorite for this weekend’s action in Phoenix. Close behind him are Ryan Blaney (+700), who nearly won here last fall, and William Byron (+750), who won this race last spring.
Ross Chastain (+850), last fall’s winner, and Denny Hamlin (+900) round out the favorites. Chastain and Trackhouse Racing have started the year in solid form. Hamlin is off to a relatively slow start, scoring just his first top-10 last weekend.
Contenders | Shriners Children’s 500 Odds
Four drivers clock in with odds between +1000 and +1500 — Christopher Bell (+1000), Martin Truex Jr. (+1000), Kyle Busch (+1200) and Joey Logano (+1400). Bell and Truex, Hamlin’s two veteran JGR teammates, have combined for just one top-5 on the year. Busch and Logano are the two winningest active drivers here with three victories apiece.
Busch clocks in at surprisingly short odds. Sure, he has led laps in every race this year, but his pit crew looks like one of the worst in the Cup Series after Vegas. He scored a top-10 at Phoenix last spring but failed to lead a lap here in two races and finished 25th in the fall.
Logano is the last driver in this tier. He couldn’t score a top-10 result here last season but finished eighth in the spring of 2022 and won on his way to the championship that fall. Although he has started on the front row every week this year, Logano has just one top-10 result to show for it.
Long Shots | Shriners Children’s 500 Odds
Only 12 drivers have odds shorter than +2000 this week. Several big names, including Chris Buescher (+2000), Brad Keselowski (+2200), Bubba Wallace (+3000) and Alex Bowman (+3500) find themselves as relative long shots. Daniel Suarez (+8000) is a massive dog relative to his team’s performance this season.
The Front Row Motorsports teammates of Michael McDowell (+10000) and Todd Gilliland (+80000) are getting completely written off now that we’ve finished up with the superspeedway races. Austin Cindric (+15000) and Austin Dillon (+10000) are both worth mentioning in this tier as they have teammates with odds far shorter than theirs.
NASCAR Cup Series Bets: Shriners Children’s 500 Picks & Predictions | Phoenix
Shriners Children’s 500 Bet #1: Christopher Bell Gets it Done | NASCAR Cup Series
I’m surprised to see Christopher Bell trading at +1200 anywhere. He is trading at +1000 everywhere except FanDuel, so we’re going to jump on that price over there. Bell hasn’t won at Phoenix in the Cup Series, and as I alluded to earlier, he doesn’t have many strong finishes at Phoenix. He owns a career-best finish of sixth, which he set in last year’s spring race.
But Bell’s lack of results at Phoenix is noise, not a signal. In the Xfinity Series, he dominated at this track, recording one win and three top-5s in five starts, leading the most laps of any Xfinity Series regular in his final three starts at the track in the series.
Bell also dominates at other short, flat ovals — looking at our comparator tracks (Phoenix, Richmond, Martinsville, Gateway, Iowa and New Hampshire), Bell has two wins, four top-5s and nine top-10s over 16 Cup Series starts in the NextGen era. His Xfinity Series resume at these tracks is even more impressive — he owns nine wins, 12 top-5s and 13 top-10s over 18 starts.
I’m backing Bell to win this race outright and to finish ahead of Kyle Busch for odds of -102 via FanDuel. Bell is priced at -130 for the same matchup at DraftKings. Further, he beat Bell in five of the eight races held on short, flat ovals in 2023. Bell’s pit crew ranked second-best in Vegas while Busch’s ranked fourth-worst, per Bozi Tatarevic, so I give a major edge to the No. 20 Toyota this weekend.
Shriners Children’s 500 NASCAR Betting Prediction: Christopher Bell +1200 at FanDuel
Shriners Children’s 500 NASCAR Betting Prediction: Christopher Bell vs. Kyle Busch -102 at FanDuel
Shriners Children’s 500 Bet #2: Michael McDowell Gets a T10 | NASCAR Cup Series
Are we all just forgetting about how good the No. 34 Ford has been when racing the short-track and road course package? Sure, McDowell won’t have the benefit of making both right and left turns this weekend, but he showed some seriously impressive speed on short, flat ovals last season, too.
Last year, McDowell recorded three top-10s and five top-15s in his eight starts on short, flat ovals, a dramatic increase over 2022, in which he failed to record any top-10s or top-15s. This speaks to two factors: first, the new hybrid short-track and road-course package; second, the improvement of Front Row Motorsports.
McDowell is trading at +350 just to score a top-10 result on DraftKings. With him yet to qualify worse than 12th this season, I could easily see that number shortening before Sunday.
Shriners Children’s 500 NASCAR Betting Prediction: Michael McDowell T10 +350 at DraftKings
