The NASCAR Cup Series playoffs continue with some crucial action at Talladega Superspeedway this weekend. Drivers looking to secure a spot in the Round of 8 only have two more races to do it, and the pressure is on for big-name guys like Kyle Larson. We’ve got the 2023 YellaWood 500 on Sunday, October 1 at 2 p.m. ET from Talladega. Keep reading as I break down the betting odds, make my predictions and identify the top NASCAR bets for this weekend’s action at Talladega — we’re backing one manufacturer and Brad Keselowski in this spot.
NASCAR Predictions for the YellaWood 500 at Talladega: Race Preview
YellaWood 500 Odds
Odds via Caesars Sportsbook
Race Preview for the YellaWood 500
The NASCAR Cup Series is off to Talladega Superspeedway for the final superspeedway race of the year. This weekend marks the second event at the track and the sixth superspeedway race on the schedule, so we've got a boatload of data to use when handicapping it. One manufacturer has looked utterly dominant at drafting tracks this year, while the others have struggled to keep up. Which one is it? If you don't know already, keep reading to find out.
We don't have to do much research to identify a sharp bet for this weekend's race. At the last superspeedway race, four of the top five cars were from the same manufacturer. The car that led the most laps -- 67 of the total 163, good for 41.1% -- came from the same stable. A driver from that manufacturer has led the most laps in each of the superspeedway races this year. Unsurprisingly, they're on the betting card.
But before I dig into the pick itself, I also want to note the playoff implications this race carries. We're one race into the Round of 12, and only William Byron has punched his ticket to the Round of 8. Kyle Larson is just two points to the good after wrecking out at Texas. One of the favorites to win this year's race at Talladega, Brad Keselowski, is only eight points to the good. Three previous Talladega winners -- Bubba Wallace, Ryan Blaney and Kyle Busch -- are below the cut line.
NASCAR Predictions for the YellaWood 500 at Talladega: Best Bets
NASCAR Talladega Prediction No. 1: Ford Wins
The aforementioned dominant manufacturer is Ford. If you've been reading these columns all year, you know how much I've been gas their performance at superspeedways. Blue Ovals may have only won two of the five events, but bad late-race luck has cost them. Brad Keselowski, a Ford driver, looked to have the Daytona 500 won until a late-race caution. Ryan Blaney was leading on the last lap at Talladega in the spring before getting bumped by Bubba Wallace. Keselowski also had the dominant car in the summer Atlanta race, but an unlucky strategy call regarding the weather cost him the win.
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Again, while Ford drivers have only won two superspeedway races, they have led the most laps in each event, and only once has Ford not scored at least a runner-up finish at these tracks this season. Joey Logano finished second in the Daytona 500, and Blaney held on to finish second in Talladega this spring. The lone exception, the summer Atlanta race, was dominated by Fords, but the weather allowed Chevrolet drivers to get contrarian to take the lead and hold on until the rain came.
If you're still not sold on this pick, let's talk numbers. Fords led 44.8% of the spring Talladega race. Fords have led 686 of the 1,016 laps run at superspeedway tracks this year, good for 67.5%. Backing Ford to win at odds of +125 (44.4%) via DraftKings gets us exposure to a bunch of drivers with short odds, Joey Logano (9.5%), Ryan Blaney (9.1%), Brad Keselowski (7.7%), Chris Buescher (7.7%), Aric Almirola (5.3%), Kevin Harvick (4.8%) and 39.4% of the total drivers entered.
NASCAR Talladega Bet: Ford 5-4 at DraftKings
NASCAR Talladega Prediction No. 2: Keselowski Finally Wins
RFK Racing is in the middle of a breakout season. Brad Keselowski, now a part owner of the team, has rocketed the team from a fringe playoff contender to a legitimate championship threat. His teammate, Chris Buescher, has won four times since Keselowski's investment, but Keselowski has yet to score a win for himself. That could change on Sunday afternoon.
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Talladega is Keselowski's best track. The veteran driver has a whopping six wins here, which is twice what the next-best driver, Joey Logano, has. He won in his first-ever Cup Series start here (in dramatic fashion). He has led at least one lap at Talladega in 22 of his 29 Cup Series starts at the track, including his most recent appearance. Unsurprisingly, he is trading at odds as short as 9-1 (10%) at some sportsbooks.
Keselowski has also excelled at superspeedways this year. He led the most laps in the Daytona 500; led the second-most laps and finished runner-up in the spring Atlanta race; led two laps and finished fifth here in the spring; led 19 laps and nearly won the summer Atlanta race, scoring a sixth-place finish in the process; and led six laps before finishing second in the summer Daytona race.
NASCAR Talladega Bet: Brad Keselowski 12-1 at Caesars
NASCAR Talladega Prediction No. 3: Preece Gets a Top 10
If you haven't seen it on social media, Ryan Preece and Chase Briscoe, teammates at Stewart-Haas Racing, will pilot cars inspired by Talladega Nights this weekend. Wonder Bread came on board to sponsor Preece's No. 41 Ford, and Old Spice did so for Briscoe's No. 14 Ford. And yes, the cars look great.
Shake it before you bake it! @RyanPreece_ | @ChaseBriscoe_14 pic.twitter.com/RWIFfjGxBj
— NASCAR (@NASCAR) September 29, 2023
It'll be fun to have money on Preece this weekend if not to just root for him in the Ricky Bobby-themed No. 41. And with his top-10 odds listed at an off-market 3-2 (40%) at Caesars.
Preece is a good superspeedway driver, but he has gotten unlucky of late. He owns an average finish of 18th at Talladega with two top-10s across seven starts. However, he ran in the top 10 all day here in the spring before getting knocked out by a wreck. He has gotten knocked out of three of the five superspeedway races to this point, but if he can stay out of other drivers' messes, he should contend for a top-10 result on Sunday.
NASCAR Talladega Bet: Ryan Preece Top 10 2-1 at FanDuel
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