After a chaotic race at the Circuit of the Americas, the NASCAR Cup Series returns to an oval for Sunday’s event at Richmond Raceway. This year’s Toyota Owners 400 will get underway on Sunday, April 2 at 3:30 p.m. ET. Our expert will break down the betting odds to identify the top NASCAR bets and make his predictions for this weekend’s action. Kyle Larson’s outright odds make him stand out as an interesting play early this week.
This season, I will handicap the opening outright odds for the NASCAR Cup Series early in the week, and I’ll post a prop article once those markets become available. Only of OddsShopper Insider Access will get access to my full betting card, but I will include most of it in articles and on our YouTube Channel.
Best NASCAR Bets & Expert Prediction Toyota Owners 400
What do the Results from Phoenix Mean for Sunday?
Last year, Ryan Blaney led the most laps at Phoenix in March. He then went on to lead the most laps at Richmond — another short, flat oval — in April. Blaney won the pole for both races. He then went on to score top-10 results at the second Richmond and Phoenix events. He and his teammate, Joey Logano, led 72.9% of the laps in the latter two races.
But neither Blaney nor Logano dominated at Phoenix this March. Instead, Hendrick Motorsports teammates Kyle Larson and William Byron combined to lead 265 of the 317 laps (83.5%). Larson ed for 201 laps led after starting from the pole and recorded the highest driver rating for the event. Although Larson only finished fourth, he looks poised to score the win this Sunday after his dominant showing.
Other trends also jump out from last year’s Phoenix and Richmond events. Of the six drivers who led laps — Blaney, Logano, Larson, Byron, Chase Briscoe and Chase Elliott — three also led laps at Richmond. All but one, Logano, scored a top-15 finish. Look for those trends to continue this year as drivers are again adapting to a new situation, this time the new short-track downforce package.
This year’s results from Phoenix point to a few solid outright bets. First, Larson looks like the best bet at 13-2 on DraftKings Sportsbook after dominating in the desert but coming up short. He has the third-shortest odds but probably should be favored over Byron (9-2) and Kevin Harvick (11-2). Second, Blaney feels underpriced at 16-1. Despite not leading a lap at Phoenix, he finished second after keeping his car in the top 10 for the entire day.
Best NASCAR Bet: Kyle Larson 13-2 for 0.25 Unit at DraftKings
Best NASCAR Bet: Ryan Blaney 16-1 for 0.15 Unit at DraftKings
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Can Brad Keselowski Finally Pull it Off?
When Brad Keselowski left Team Penske to buy a stake in RFK Racing last year, most thought he wouldn’t compete for wins that season. Although he did end up winless, his teammate, Chris Buescher, scored a win at Bristol. Further, Keselowski led laps at superspeedway races and put together some great runs late in the season.
Keselowski’s investment is starting to pay off. The veteran driver had a strong run at Phoenix going until late. He qualified fourth, led a lap and finished the second stage in fourth. He even recorded the eighth-best driver rating for the event. Given the correlation between Phoenix and Richmond last season, Keselowski should put together another strong showing this Sunday.
Short, flat ovals like Richmond have been some of Keselowski’s best tracks. He has scored owns two wins, and 15 top-10s across 22 Cup Series starts at New Hampshire Motor Speedway. He has also recorded two wins and 12 top-10s across 26 starts at Richmond. Keselowski has led the fifth-most laps here of all active drivers (1,177) in the fewest starts (26) here in Virginia.
Keselowski is a sharp bet to return to victory lane, especially at the odds of 25-1 available at FanDuel Sportsbook. Readers yet to at FanDuel can get a no-sweat first bet worth up to $1,000!
Best NASCAR Bet: Brad Keselowski 25-1 for 0.1 Unit at FanDuel
