We know now that Shohei Ohtani will not pitch again in 2023, so the first question to ask (other than what it means for the Angels’ playoff hopes) is, “How does this affect the American League MVP race?” Ohtani has been the overwhelming favorite to take home the award for months at this point, but the reveal of a torn UCL in his pitching arm could throw that status up in the air. At this point, the MVP race may depend on whether or not Ohtani can hit well enough with this arm injury to stave off the rest of the competition. So where do the AL MVP odds sit now?
Where AL MVP Odds Market Stands Following Shohei Ohtani Injury
The answer, quite simply, is: They don’t. The odds don’t sit anywhere. Most sportsbooks took AL MVP odds off the board a few days ago, as Ohtani had become an unbettable, overwhelming favorite to win — -10000 or shorter in some places.
Shohei Ohtani’s odds to win AL MVP at @BetMGM
Open +200
Close -10000
AL MVP odds are off the board. pic.twitter.com/Sfcx3uxdzQ
— John Ewing (@johnewing) August 21, 2023
Thus far, the news of Ohtani putting down his glove for the rest of the season has done nothing to change that. AL MVP is still not on the board at FanDuel, and thus far signs point to that not changing any time soon.
For reference, on FanGraphs Ohtani leads American League players in wins above replacement (WAR) by 3.5 — he has 8.6, compared to Bobby Witt Jr.’s 5.1. Witt has no shot at getting into the race given the Royals’ place in the standings, so the real contenders to inch their way up to contention are Corey Seager (5.0 fWAR), Marcus Semien (4.9), Julio Rodriguez (4.8), Adolis Garcia (4.3) and Kyle Tucker (4.1).
But even if Ohtani does not throw another pitch this season, all of those players will have a mountain to climb in the WAR department, as Ohtani’s position player WAR is still 1.2 wins above second-place Witt. Plus, traditional stats strongly favor Ohtani’s offense as well, as he leads the American League in runs, home runs and OPS and narrowly trails Tucker and Garcia for the RBI lead.
There are two things that could get the AL MVP odds back on the board and get Tucker, Seager, et al., into true contention. One is the obvious nature of Ohtani’s injury. The UCL tear will certainly prevent him from playing the field, but DH should not be an issue; just last year Bryce Harper suffered a similar injury and was able to play through it en route to a successful postseason run. As long as Ohtani gets at-bats, the MVP should be sewn up.
One could, however, look to the Angels’ team performance as a reason to favor one of the Astros, Rangers or Mariners, especially since all three teams play in the same division. If Seager or Tucker find a huge hot streak and Ohtani has to miss some time, perhaps the standings creep into voters’ minds. That said, Ohtani won 2021 MVP on a 77-win team, so the odds of this mattering seem unlikely.
As it stands, the most predictable route moving forward is Ohtani remaining such a massive favorite that books keep AL MVP off their boards.
